After Joe Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate, Donald Trump claimed she would be easier to beat in the 2024 US elections. After his attempted assassination, self-proclaimed psychic Craig Hamilton, also known as the 'New Nostradamus,' predicted that Trump may win the election.
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However, now historian Allan Lichtman, who has been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions, has forecast that Harris will beat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
Election Nostradamus Allan Lichtman predicts Harris will beat Trump
American University professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections. For instance, in 2016, he predicted that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, he predicted Joe Biden would win over Trump.
The historian has now predicted that Harris will win over Trump in the November 5 election, and the Democrats will keep the White House. In a video posted by the New York Times, Lichtman said:
The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. At least, that’s my prediction for this race.
According to CNBC, Lichtman uses his 13 Keys to the White House model to predict election results. These include factors like economic stability and the absence of major scandals. He developed the unique system in the 1980s with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
Lichtman’s predictive model, which has consistently proven reliable for decades, relies on a true-or-false system of 13 conditions. If six or more statements are false, then the challenger is predicted to win. The 13 statements are as follows:
True statements
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
False statements
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
- Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Undecided statements
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
According to Lichtman, the final two keys involving foreign policies can be ‘tricky’ and could flip anytime. Regardless of both statements flipping, they ‘would not be enough’ for Trump ‘to regain the White House.’ He added:
The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction. The outcome is up to you. So get out and vote.
Who is Allan Lichtman - the presidential election Nostradamus?
Allan Lichtman is a renowned American political historian and professor at American University in Washington, DC. Best known for his ‘Keys to the White House,’ he has earned the title of ‘election Nostradamus’ due to his highly accurate predictions, which are based on historical patterns and data rather than opinion polling.
His expertise goes beyond predictions; he is also a published author and frequent media commentator on American political history, elections, and civil rights issues, as reported by the American University website. He has authored several influential books, including The Case for Impeachment—a national independent bookstore bestseller—and Repeal the Second Amendment. His book White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement was a finalist for the National Book Critics Circle Award in nonfiction. Lichtman was also listed as the 85th most influential geopolitical expert in the world by Rise Global.
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Sources used
New York Post: Election ‘Nostradamus’ predicts Kamala Harris will win 2024 presidential race
CNBC: Harris will beat Trump, says election prediction legend Allan Lichtman
American University website: Faculty Profile: Allan Lichtman
