Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing conflict has seen a massive loss of lives for both countries. As speculation around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s health mounts and reports surface of Russian soldiers fighting with shovels in the absence of weapons, new information has reportedly been leaked from Russia that suggests the situation is only going to get worse.
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A recent intelligence update from the UK’s Ministry of Defence predicts that Putin’s war against Ukraine is set to continue for a long time. The MoD, who posted the information on X, said that Russia seems to be planning a massive increase in its defence spending in 2024.
What the leaked documents say
The report mentions documents ‘apparently leaked from Russia’s Finance Ministry’ have pushed the MoD to believe that Russia’s defence budget may be ‘set to surge to approximately 30 percent of total public expenditure in 2024’.
The Ministry of Defence has assessed that such a huge increase in financing signals Russia's true intentions: to continue its war against Ukraine for years.
Full details on Russian defence spending are always classified, but these figures suggest that Russia is preparing for multiple further years of fighting in Ukraine.
What this will cost Russia
The report states that ‘the ministry proposes a defence budget of 10.8trillion roubles, equivalent to approximately 6 percent of GDP and a 68 percent increase over 2023’. The British MoD believes that Russia will be able to deal with this expense, ‘but only at the expense of the wider economy’.
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu made some comments last week that seem to confirm the claims made in these leaked documents. He told Russian commanders that Putin’s military ‘continues increasing its combat capacity’. He continued:
Consistent implementation of measures within the framework of the action plan until 2025 will allow us to achieve the intended goals.
This comes amid reports of other efforts being made to reinforce the Russian army: Vladimir Putin recently raised the conscription age of Russian men from 27 to 30.
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Sources used:
Express: Ministry of Defence intelligence reveals leaks of Putin's Ukraine War plans
