Russia is facing a 'spectacular' collapse, here's why the West should be worried

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, has warned that the West must be ready for the collapse and break-up of Russia.

'The West is afraid of fragmentation in Russia'

Speaking to The Times, Danilov said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting in March with Chinese President Xi Jinping confirmed Ukraine’s long-held suspicions that Russia is weak and at risk of disintegrating.

Danilov said:

The West doesn’t know Russia and the West is afraid of fragmentation in Russia. But this process is already under way.

He said the collapse would be 'spectacular' and would occur within three, five, or seven years. Danilov added: 'It is a historic process and you can’t stop history'.

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Why should the West be concerned about this?

Because of China, according to Danilov. He believes Russia has lost its hold over its formerly loyal Asian allies. And now, China is anticipating Russia’s collapse so it can take the Siberian far east, which is home to large Chinese populations.

Danilov said:

Letting China take Russian territory will be dangerous for the West because by unlocking one problem they will create another. There needs to be initial steps by the West now.

He pointed out that during the meeting between the two leaders, China did not agree to supply weapons to Russia. And while the friendship between the two countries has been described as 'without limits', this was not mentioned in the final declarations. Danilov said:

China is a big country and will be a mighty rival to the Anglo-Saxon world. Now it's the owner of Russia. Russia will no longer undertake any important action without them. Russia fully lost its sovereignty. That's a fact.

In addition, Danilov believes that while China refused Western sanctions on buying Russian oil and gas, it only did so out of its own interest, and China's position has only been strengthened as a result.

Indeed, as Russia is under pressure to sell surplus volumes no longer being purchased by the EU, China has saved billions of dollars by buying cheaper Russian oil and coal and has made returns by trading excess supplies.

Sources used:

The Times: 'Kyiv’s security chief warns: ‘The West must get ready for Russia to collapse soon’'

DailyMail: 'The total collapse and break-up of Putin's Russia has already begun and the West needs to be ready to deal with the aftermath, top Zelensky official predicts'

Reuters: 'Factbox: How China benefits from Western sanctions on Russia's energy exports'