Vladimir Putin could face another coup from Wagner chief within six months, expert predicts

Christo Grozev, a high-profile investigator from Bellingcat, was quite precise when in January this year he predicted Wagner’s uprising against Vladimir Putin.

The expert who is considered one the Russian leader's enemies with a target on their back has now revealed the opportunity of the second, a better-prepared coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Unless the warlord is killed by Vladimir Putin who wants to ‘see him dead’ but ‘can’t do it yet’, Wagner chief will rise again, Grozev believes.

He also said that the members of Russian elite are unhappy with the situation in Ukraine which results in their limited freedom and frozen bank accounts, and that Vladimir Putin ‘will not last that long’.

Vladimir Putin is likely to face another revolt from Yevgeny Prigozhin

Wagner coup number two that will target the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin himself is a very realistic possibility, one of the most high-profile Russia investigators Christo Grozev revealed.

The expert famously predicted the previous revolt by Yevgeny Prigozhin which ‘weakened’ Mr President.

He believes that only the assassination of the warlord - which is also considered a very possible scenario - could prevent the next uprising.

Grozev said:

Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor.

Everyone knows what they do with ‘traitors’ and Putin hasn’t done that. He wants to see him dead. He can’t do that yet.

In six months Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup.

… you can hold me to it.

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Russian elite are unhappy with Vladimir Putin, expert claims

According to Grozev, the influential members of the Russian elite don’t see ‘any sense for them in this war’ and are unhappy with Vladimir Putin. But they don’t dare to speak out because of the ‘prisoner’s dilemma’.

Grozev said:

They don’t want to be the first ones to move or the only ones.

The investigator believes that either ‘the prisoner’s dilemma can be broken’ or ‘a better-coordinated coup’ could take place.

A ‘reversal of fortunes on the frontline’ could be another catalyst for the political changes in Russia.

Grozev added:

You don’t have that yet among the oligarchs, or with any of the ministers, or the FSB [Russia’s security service].

But it is unpalatable for the rest of the elite to live in a North Korea 2.1 with their bank accounts frozen. Other triggers could happen.

The expert also shared the intel that the Russian president is delaying the war in Ukraine as he is planning to use AI to interfere in the 2024 US election to help Donald Trump win.

The political change would then see Washington withdraw the military help from Kyiv and allow Vladimir Putin declare victory over its war-torn neighbour.

Who is Christo Grozev from Bellingcat?

Bellingcat is the open-source investigative group that has exposed numerous Russian plots and assassinations.

Christo Grozev, its co-founder and lead Russia investigator, became Vladimir Putin’s enemy with a target on his back following his award-winning journalist work.

He was declared a ‘foreign agent’ and was forced to leave Europe out of fear for his life after authorities admitted they could ‘no longer guarantee his safety’.

Grozev was part of the team that accepted an Oscar this year for Navalny, a documentary about the attempted murder of Russia’s now-jailed leading opposition figure, Alexei Navalny.

According to Grozev, what motivates him to continue his dangerous work is ‘proving that the Russian model is finite’ and hope that it ‘would scare a lot of other wannabe dictators and make them rethink’.

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Sources used:

- GB News: 'Vladimir Putin faces second coup plot as expert warns of Wagner return'

- Financial Times: 'Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev: ‘Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup’'