Vladimir Putin has a 'father-son relationship' with his right-hand man, but his days may be numbered

Chechnya's leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, has been a key ally of Vladimir Putin during the war, sending Chechen troops to support Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. However, his future is uncertain. Here’s why.

Putin and Kadyrov have a 'father-son' relationship

Despite at times criticising Russian military leadership in the Ukraine war, Kadyrov describes himself as Putin's 'foot-soldier'. Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University, told Newsweek:

The Kadyrov-Putin relationship is one of the most pivotal relationships of all in the Russian Federation.

Emil Aslan, associate professor of political science at Prague's Charles University, describes their relationship as 'a father-son relationship'. And that has implications for Kadyrov.

Putin and Kadyrov's relationship comes at a cost

Taras Kuzio, a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, believes that, similar to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kadyrov's fate is 'directly linked to Putin'. If Putin's leadership were to end, no matter the reason:

There's simply no way I can see how Kadyrov and Lukashenko will remain in their posts.

Kadyrov could have even prepared some form of 'exit strategy' if this takes place, Kuzio added. However it seems for the time being, he's staying put.

Mikhail Alexseev emphasises that their relationship isn't about closeness. Instead, it's a matter of keep your friends close and your enemies closer: it's 'an understanding of mutual dependency, [that] both the Kremlin and Kadyrov have a lot to fear about one another'.

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Kadyrov's days are numbered

Kadyrov's 'very special relationship' with Putin has enabled him to avoid or overrule federal agencies, according to Mikhail Alexseev. This has practically bestowed the Chechen leader with a 'carte blanche' that gives him much more power than any other Russian regional leader.

Emil Aslan believes that he has alienated Russian law enforcement and made 'very mighty, very powerful enemies within the Russian security services', and only Putin is standing in the way of them. Taras Kuzio seems to agree, saying:

He's hated by the FSB [Russian federal security service], by the Russian intelligence services.

Emil Aslan believes Kadyrov's biggest threat is Russia's own security services. He added that without Putin, 'I expect Kadyrov's days to be numbered'.

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Kadyrov could 'force' Zelenskyy to do anything

It comes as Kadyrov claimed recently in a Russia 1 TV interview that if it came to negotiating with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,'I would convince him very quickly to sign all the necessary documents'. When asked what he would say to Zelenskyy, he replied:

I wouldn't say anything. I would force him to do whatever we need.

Kadyrov added:

I'm a psychologist and I know people very well and I can manipulate them, so I would quickly find the right frequencies and put him in his place.

Sources used:

- Newsweek: 'Ramzan Kadyrov Risks Being Burnt by Putin's War'

- Newsweek:'Putin Ally Makes Ominous Claim About Negotiating with Zelensky'