At the outset of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, military experts believed Vladimir Putin’s forces would need merely 72 hours to topple the government in Kyiv.
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Nearly eight months into the war, Russia not only has been repeatedly humiliated but also suffered heavy losses, which now could stir up discontent back home in Russia to the point of having Vladimir Putin overthrown by his own people, Newsweekreports.
Internal coup
The Odessa Journalreports the view of Andrii Chernyak, the representative of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. He said, while speaking to RBK-Ukraine, that with mounting Russian casualties in the battlefields in Ukraine, there will soon come a time when ordinary people in Russia will revolt against their ‘king’.
'This will happen when the number of people killed in the war will not be tens, but hundreds of thousands. The people are still bombarded with propaganda and intimidated by security forces. Everyone understands that all decisions are made by a single person. People may live in poverty, but they will not go against their king. But when there are hundreds of thousands of corpses, it will be a different situation.'
The Ukrainian Intelligence chief believes that at the top, officials are still loyal to Vladimir Putin because of their fear of repercussions.
However, once a popular uprising will emerge from the streets then representatives of the ruling top’ will join.
Vladimir Putin behind Russia’s likely collapse
Chernyak said there are Russians who collaborate with Ukrainian intelligence authorities and who are aware that their country is facing a collapse, The Odessa Journal reports.
According to Newsweek, Konstantin Sonin, a Russian political economist at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy, agrees with that view, saying that ‘Putin is participating in creating the collapse’.
Nevertheless, Domitilla Sagramoso, a senior lecturer in security and development at King's College London, ‘does not believe that public unhappiness about the mobilisation alone can morph into a force capable of overthrowing Putin’
Ilya Ponomarev, a Russian exiled lawmaker who lives in Kyiv now, believes, the biggest threat to Putin’s rule is a military defeat in Ukraine.'
In the meantime, in order for a successful revolution to take place in Russia, it needs the support of certain parts of the elites.
Sources used:
-Newsweek: ‘Putin's Biggest Threat Could Come From Within Russia’
-Odessa Journal: ‘Defence Intelligence: the Russians understand that their country is about to collapse’
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