Vladimir Putin may be forced out of power as Russian diplomat reveals he 'can be replaced'

Amid Russia’s military failures in Ukraine, there is increasing speculation that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced out of power.

Russia's chances of defeat increasing

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has admitted that Russia's options through which they can achieve victory in Ukraine are getting slimmer.

Peskov has in the past claimed that Russia could potentially gain victory in Ukraine via peace talks, with some conditions remaining nonnegotiable. However, on Monday 13 March, he conceded that Russia can only win now through military means. Peskov told reporters:

For us, the absolute priority continues to be and will always remain the achievement of the goals set. At the moment they can only be achieved by military means.

Vladimir Putin could be forced out of power

And, should Russia lose the war, Putin may be forced to step down as Russian leader, according to Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat. Bondarev told Newsweek:

Putin can be replaced. He's not a superhero. He doesn't have any superpowers. He's just an ordinary dictator. And we have if we look at history, we see that such dictators have been replaced from time to time. So usually, if they lose the war, and they could not satisfy the needs of the supporters, they usually went away.

Bondarev believes that once Russians realise they have been defeated and Putin can’t do anything about it,

They might think they don't need Putin anymore. I think that once they say farewell to the delusions, and find themselves in a new reality where Putin cannot deliver anything—only fear and some kind of threat of repression against his own people—that will change the situation.

Read more:

⋙ Vladimir Putin: Latest conflict could be sign that 'Russians will begin to wake up', official claims

⋙ Vladimir Putin finally admits Russia faces a uncertain future: He doubts 'Russian people will survive'

3 scenarios for Russian defeat

Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, presented three potential scenarios for a Russian loss.

The first involves the Russian elite forcing Putin out of power while sabotaging any chance for him to deploy a nuclear weapon.

In the second, Putin would agree to step down gradually to make room for a new leader, but only if he is provided with immunity from prosecution.

In the third, Russian elites would attempt to negotiate a deal with Putin to declare a so-called 'victory' for 'standing up to the West' and 'defending Motherland' while passing the baton onto a nominated successor.

In regards to the third scenario, Mykhnenko added:

Unlike in the first two scenarios, this is the one where Putin has [the] most bargaining power and a chance to save his life.

Read more: ⋙ Vladimir Putin's latest speech could be proof of growing backlash against war in Russia

Putin will try to convince Russians of victory

Bondarev also believes that Putin may try to paint whatever small wins he made in Ukraine as a victory. He said:

Maybe if he has a couple of new villages then he can say that is a victory, he defeated Ukrainians, he protected the nation, and also blame Ukrainians and the West for not being willing to negotiate peace on these terms. I think if Putin is allowed to do this, he can say that he won, and he will try to sell it to his audience as a victory.

However, Bondarev said 'Putin will find it quite difficult to convince his own elite that this victory was worth all the losses, and everything that they have lost...' He added:

I don't feel that they would be very much happy about this, that okay, we can get a few Ukrainian villages, and that should compensate for all the losses.

Sources used:

Newsweek: 'Russia Admits Chances of Victory in Ukraine are Narrowing'

Newsweek: 'If Russia Loses Ukraine War, This Is How Putin Will React'