Yevgeny Prigozhin rose to popularity amongst Russians after his mercenaries joined forces with the Russian Army following the country’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.
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The latter was largely served to people as a ‘patriotic’ war where Moscow had to fight against the 'Nazis in Ukraine' and against NATO which was allegedly 'threatening Russia's existence'. Comparisons were drawn between the so-called 'special military operation' and World War II.
Although Yevgeny Prigozhin never directly criticised Vladimir Putin, in recent months he grew increasingly frustrated with Russian military commandment, in particular with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s top general Valery Gerasimov.
Posting heated videos from the frontline, he accused them of incompetence and of denying ammunition and support to Wagner group. He used social media to call for their execution by firing squads, alsothreatening ‘revolution’.
And it seems like the revolution is what Kremlin got after Wagner's chief called for a now-reconsidered rebellion against the Russian army yesterday.
While Prigozhin is not a part of the political elite and can hardly pose a threat to Vladimir Putin, experts believe that the Russian President underestimates his online popularity.
Here are some details about the relationship between the two.
Is Prigozhin a popular figure in Russia?
Evgeny Prigozhin was named ‘trendsetter of the year’ at last week’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the event Russian mainstream media says shows an emerging trend for ‘epic heroes’ in the country.
At the same time, Wagner chief ranked fifth in a survey asking ‘Are there living Russians of whom our country could be proud, or not.'
He came above Sergei Shoigu and other government officials but below Putin, military personnel, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Another survey aiming to find out whom Russians trust most saw Prigozhin’s name included for the first time, with a rating of 4%. Former president Dmitry Medvedev, who is said to write his ominous threats to the West following excessive alcohol consumption, scored the same.
This month another research centre also included Prigozhin in the list of trusted figures for the first time. Vladimir Putin’s ‘chef’ came behind the Russian leader, Lavrov, Shoigu, and Mishustin.
His popularity bypassed those of Kremlin propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Dmitry Medvedev.
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Why does Putin give Prigozhin so much freedom?
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik, believes that Vladimir Putin underestimates Prigozhin's online influence due to his ‘distorted understanding’ of online media.
She said:
Prigozhin is not allowed in mainstream media, mostly. So in Putin's eyes, if a person is not on TV, it means that this person is somehow isolated, and in Putin's picture, Prigozhin remains on the periphery of political life.
The expert believes that this is one of the reasons Wagner chief benefits from so much freedom.
The other reason is that the Russian President sees him as useful ‘for now’.
Russia expert Keir Giles thinks that Prigozhin had a role to play ‘assigned to him by whoever is protecting him within the Russian system’ but that ‘he's gone well above and beyond’ it, becoming more prominent than planned.
The expert believes that there is a prospect of him ‘becoming a wildcard’ in the power structure within Russia, with an individual personality cult that could challenge the existing establishment.
Stanovaya adds that Vladimir Putin ‘doesn't realise’ the possible damage to his elite and ‘official institutions’.
She commented:
We see in any case that Prigozhin has a place, and this place is green-lighted by Putin.
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Sources used:
- Newsweek: 'Putin is Underestimating Prigozhin's Rise in Popularity'
- BBC News: 'Wagner chief says mercenaries turning back to 'avoid bloodshed''