Vladimir Putin's future leadership 'damaged' by 'catastrophic error of judgement', experts reveal

There have apparently been increasing talks in Russia about ‘succession’ after Vladimir Putin. It’s believed that it’s more likely now than ever before.

Vladimir Putin's future is uncertain

Western officials said on Thursday 16 February that Putin’s future leadership has become more uncertain. An official stated that Putin’spower was much more secure a year ago, before he invaded Ukraine.

One anonymous official told reporters about the war:

This is such a catastrophic error of judgement and this is harming both the present and future of Russia to such a degree that it has damaged President Putin.

The official continued:

People are talking about succession in a way that they weren't a year ago. But what there isn't, in a place like Russia, is a clear pathway to change.

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Change in leadership 'impossible to predict'

The officials believed that following changes to the Russian constitution in 2020, Putin would likely win the presidential elections in 2024, if he stood, and remain in power 'well into the 2030s', unless he was forced out because of poor health. One official said:

At that point, my own assessment was that there was a political leadership that we would have for the next decade.

However, they continued:

I think it's much less certain now, but I'm not saying that any change is about to happen imminently.

Another official agreed, saying:

Now, I can’t see that happening

But when something happens is impossible to predict in a country like Russia.

They warned:

So, I’m afraid what we are seeing is this grinding war continue and not seeing at least for the moment him changing his ambition over Ukraine.

Sources used:

- Reuters: 'Western official: Putin's future in power has become less certain'

- Evening Standard: 'Russians increasingly talking about ‘succession’ after Vladimir Putin, say western officials'