Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister, Volodymyr Ohryzko, believes that there are growing signs which suggest that the regime in Kremlinwill collapse.
Discover our latest podcast
This is mostly because the conflict in Ukrainehas not been going according to plan and in combination with other growing challenges.
Multiple crises are leading to a loss of confidence
Ohryzko, who served as Kyiv’s top diplomat from 2007 to 2009, was speaking in an interview for Ukraine’s Radio NV where he asserted thatRussian President Vladimir Putin will find it increasingly difficult to manage multiple crises.
Ohrzyko agrees with the view of Political Science Professor, Daniel Treisman, who has recently predicted a ‘meltdown of Putin's regime’, Foreign Affairs reports.
‘Putin is facing a number of problems as his war drags on, including battlefield reversals, elite conflicts, economic failures, shrinking budget revenues, unrest over mobilization, and labor protests.'
According to Treisman, this combination cripples Putin’s ability to maintain control.
‘A comprehensive meltdown of the regime, as multiple challenges overwhelm its capacity to react and dysfunction drains confidence in Putin’s leadership.’
Negative Trends
Moreover, Ohryzko says that we have been witnessing negative trends on the side of the Russians in Ukraine. He said, as quoted by Newsweek.
‘The trends for Putin are very negative. We cannot now predict when the regime will collapse, but it will happen. And it will fall apart due to many circumstances.'
In addition to the battlefield-related problems which have become unpredictable, Ohryzko says that Putin is facing increasing domestic pressure including a weakening of his base among the Russian elites.
‘Russian elites are beginning to understand that the center is becoming weaker and weaker.’
According to Ohryzko, this is Putin’s biggest threat to his power leading him to conclude that the dissatisfaction of the elites will topple Putin. This is more likely than being removed by civil unrest which he thinks will never happen.
‘There is a threat to Putin's regime from within—not in the form of some kind of rebellion against the things that are happening, but because of 'wounded self-love. Putin will be removed.’
Sources used:
-Newsweek: ‘Putin Will Be 'Removed' From Power, Says Ukraine's Ex-Foreign Minister’
